Lumber prices are stagnant, while exports continue to be strong. As of the first part of 2011 through April, U.S. lumber exports are up 44% and expected to surpass a total value of $3 billion for the year.
China continues to roar and 2011 lumber exports to China will be about double what they were in 2010. The main softwood lumber species China is importing from the U.S. are Douglas-fir, hemlock, and some pine. The main hardwood species are red oak, yellow poplar, and some maple and walnut. Japan continues to be firm with 2011 lumber export values projected at increase to US$215 million in 2011, which is up from the $176 million figure of 2010.
Whether you are looking at hardood lumber or softwood lumber in the dometstic market, things are still tough. Wholesale lumber prices are still low due to lack of demand. Housing starts for
May came in at 560,000 and jobless claims are still over 400,000. So this puts us at 2012.
Interestingly enough, housing start forecasts are pretty rosy for 2012. Forecasts for 2012 are anywhere from NAHB is at 800,000 starts to Moody’s is at 1 million. Hmmm? The question of shadow inventory remains. While I really want to believe these forecasts, I’d come in more at 600,000 to 750,000. Hope for the best but keep your belts tightened during the 1st half of 2012.
Stick Trade Blog
Wholesale Lumber Prices Stagnant Ex...
Posted July 1st, 2011<< Back to Stick Trade
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