Stick Trade Blog

Lumber Prices for Hardwoods and Sof...

Posted August 10th, 2011

Future lumber prices for Jan 2012 were down 4% today (CME 8/10/11) and listed at $245.90. In looking the lumber news from 2010 & many experts were predicting 2012 to be the breakout year for lumber supply and demand. So what will 2012 bring? The data now appears to say that 2012 will not be a breakout year for hardwood lumber or softwood lumber demand. So what do the Ti Leaves say? The biggest leaf on the tree is housing starts and these are still and will will probably remain low for 2012. The annualized figure for June 2011 is 624,000 and 2012 we be maybe slightly higher. So what is a healthy housing start number for the lumber industry? Well, from 1995 through 2005 the average figure was about 1.66 million annual housing starts and to get back to semi-normal this figure should be a above 1 million. While hardwood lumber including red oak and white oak, maple, hickory and cherry are more resistant to fluctuations in housing starts than softwood lumber, new housing still stimulates demand for hardwoods via cabinets, flooring and other millwork products. The factors limiting housing starts continue to hinder the economy. These include a high unemployment, high foreclosures and low consumer confidence. According to RealtyTrac foreclosures were 222,747 for June 2011 and this number is still high. Unemployment is another thorn in the side of the housing market. Generally, it is good to have a job to buy a house and, even if a person has a job, the consumer needs the confidence that that job will last. Yesterday (8/9), a very wise man on economic matters, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, announced he would keep interest rates at the lowest possible level until mid-2013. In plain English the guy is saying he expects things to be bad for awhile. The decline in housing starts has led to a decline in lumber production. U.S. lumber production has declined from 51 billion board feet in 2005 to 29 billion board feet in 2010. The 2011 figure may should be similar to 2010. So where is the sunshine in this storm? As we have said before, it is in global markets. The value of lumber exports through May 2011 are up 30 percent over the same period of 2010. The leading export markets in order are China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Italy, and Vietnam. Mills and dealers that are exporting are thriving from a weak US Dollar, which makes U.S. lumber cheaper abroad. The sawmill and forest products industry is now in a totally different dimension than it was 10 years ago. Exporting should no longer be considered a choice, but an essential business strategy. If a mill or lumber related company does not want to export directly that is fine. But find a company to partner up with that has expertise in global markets. A good place to start is by joining the Softwood Export Council or the American Hardwood Export Council. These entities can help sawmills and lumber traders started with exporting. Remember, above every cloud is a sunny day.

<< Back to Stick Trade

RSS Lumber News from Around the Web

  • Conservation groups to appeal timber project decision - Charlotte Observer March 28, 2015
    Alaska Dispatch NewsConservation groups to appeal timber project decisionCharlotte ObserverThe agency last year approved selling 6,000 acres of old-growth trees for logging as part of the timber project on Prince of Wales Island west of Ketchikan. Environmental groups raised concerns about how the logging would affect wolf and deer populations.Environmental
  • Timber 2015 expo a showcase for Pennsylvania forest products industry - Penn State News March 27, 2015
    Penn State NewsTimber 2015 expo a showcase for Pennsylvania forest products industryPenn State NewsUNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Pennsylvania's large forest-products industry will be showcased during the 2015 Forest Products Equipment and Technology Exposition, June 5-6 at Penn State's Ag Progress Days site at Rock Springs. Known as Timber 2015, the ...
  • Jose Lobaton flashing the lumber (another tie for Nats) - MASNsports.com March 27, 2015
    MASNsports.comJose Lobaton flashing the lumber (another tie for Nats)MASNsports.comRecap: Jordan Zimmermann allowed just one run on four hits with two walks, a hit batter and four strikeouts in six innings. Catcher Jose Lobaton drove in the Nats' only run when he doubled home second baseman Dan Uggla in the second. It was part of a ...and more »
  • Save big on new flooring - WOODTV.com March 27, 2015
    WOODTV.comSave big on new flooringWOODTV.comIf you're thinking about any kind of flooring project, there's a sale you need to check out this weekend. DeGraaf Interiors is holding its first-ever warehouse sale. You'll find deep discounts on hardwood, laminates, vinyl, and carpet. Plus, save even ...and more »
  • Today's Dead Cat Bounce Stock: Lumber Liquidators Holdings (LL) - TheStreet.com March 27, 2015
    TheStreet.comToday's Dead Cat Bounce Stock: Lumber Liquidators Holdings (LL)TheStreet.comTrade-Ideas LLC identified Lumber Liquidators Holdings ( LL) as a "dead cat bounce" (down big yesterday but up big today) candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Lumber Liquidators Holdings as such a stock due to ...M
  • Lumber Liquidators Weighs Libel Suit Against CBS - Fox Business March 27, 2015
    Fox BusinessLumber Liquidators Weighs Libel Suit Against CBSFox BusinessExecutives at Lumber Liquidators (LL), the controversial discount floor retailer, are telling investors they are feeling so emboldened by a recent regulatory announcement they may sue the news program “60 Minutes” over its reporting that raised issues ...Lumber Liquidators Flooring Under
  • Students In Timber Lake Debate Graduation Speaker Decision - KELOLAND TV March 26, 2015
    KELOLAND TVStudents In Timber Lake Debate Graduation Speaker DecisionKELOLAND TVSome high school seniors in Timber Lake are at odds with a school decision about when they'll hear graduation speakers. Come graduation time at Timber Lake School, community member Jerimiah Garon wants to see high school seniors getting along with ...
  • Lumber Liquidators flooring in safety probe - CNNMoney March 25, 2015
    CNNMoneyLumber Liquidators flooring in safety probeCNNMoneyFederal safety investigators are investigating whether Lumber Liquidators' flooring has dangerous levels of the cancer-causing chemical formaldehyde. The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced the probe Wednesday and said if it found a safety ...Lumber Liquidators Faces US Safety InquiryNe
  • Royal Flooring showroom opens in Urbandale - DesMoinesRegister.com March 25, 2015
    DesMoinesRegister.comRoyal Flooring showroom opens in UrbandaleDesMoinesRegister.comRoyal Flooring has opened a store at 9850 Douglas Ave., Urbandale, its second metro area location. The store offers flooring, kitchen cabinets, countertops, appliances and window treatments. The showroom offers seven complete kitchen models so that ...
  • Crisis of the Week: Lumber Liquidators Fights Flooring Foes - Wall Street Journal (blog) March 23, 2015
    Wall Street Journal (blog)Crisis of the Week: Lumber Liquidators Fights Flooring FoesWall Street Journal (blog)Lumber Liquidators LL +1.00% is the subject of this week's crisis, as the company has seen its stock price take a wild ride down and back up after allegations raised in a '60 Minutes' story. The story alleged the laminate-flooring mat

Lumber | Hardwood Lumber