Stick Trade Blog

Lumber Prices for Hardwoods and Sof...

Posted August 10th, 2011

Future lumber prices for Jan 2012 were down 4% today (CME 8/10/11) and listed at $245.90. In looking the lumber news from 2010 & many experts were predicting 2012 to be the breakout year for lumber supply and demand. So what will 2012 bring? The data now appears to say that 2012 will not be a breakout year for hardwood lumber or softwood lumber demand. So what do the Ti Leaves say? The biggest leaf on the tree is housing starts and these are still and will will probably remain low for 2012. The annualized figure for June 2011 is 624,000 and 2012 we be maybe slightly higher. So what is a healthy housing start number for the lumber industry? Well, from 1995 through 2005 the average figure was about 1.66 million annual housing starts and to get back to semi-normal this figure should be a above 1 million. While hardwood lumber including red oak and white oak, maple, hickory and cherry are more resistant to fluctuations in housing starts than softwood lumber, new housing still stimulates demand for hardwoods via cabinets, flooring and other millwork products. The factors limiting housing starts continue to hinder the economy. These include a high unemployment, high foreclosures and low consumer confidence. According to RealtyTrac foreclosures were 222,747 for June 2011 and this number is still high. Unemployment is another thorn in the side of the housing market. Generally, it is good to have a job to buy a house and, even if a person has a job, the consumer needs the confidence that that job will last. Yesterday (8/9), a very wise man on economic matters, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, announced he would keep interest rates at the lowest possible level until mid-2013. In plain English the guy is saying he expects things to be bad for awhile. The decline in housing starts has led to a decline in lumber production. U.S. lumber production has declined from 51 billion board feet in 2005 to 29 billion board feet in 2010. The 2011 figure may should be similar to 2010. So where is the sunshine in this storm? As we have said before, it is in global markets. The value of lumber exports through May 2011 are up 30 percent over the same period of 2010. The leading export markets in order are China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Italy, and Vietnam. Mills and dealers that are exporting are thriving from a weak US Dollar, which makes U.S. lumber cheaper abroad. The sawmill and forest products industry is now in a totally different dimension than it was 10 years ago. Exporting should no longer be considered a choice, but an essential business strategy. If a mill or lumber related company does not want to export directly that is fine. But find a company to partner up with that has expertise in global markets. A good place to start is by joining the Softwood Export Council or the American Hardwood Export Council. These entities can help sawmills and lumber traders started with exporting. Remember, above every cloud is a sunny day.

<< Back to Stick Trade

RSS Lumber News from Around the Web

  • Be On The Lookout: Men claimed to be selling flooring - Stole victims money - Wgnsradio September 2, 2014
    Be On The Lookout: Men claimed to be selling flooring - Stole victims moneyWgnsradioThe subjects claimed to be selling flooring. The victim invited the men into her home and during the visit she briefly left the room. While she was in another room the men grabbed her purse and took approximately $500 out of it. Shortly after goodbye's ...
  • North Country Lumber Jills recruiting new members - WPTZ The Champlain Valley September 2, 2014
    North Country Lumber Jills recruiting new membersWPTZ The Champlain ValleyNorth Country Lumber Jills recruiting new members. UPDATED 10:39 PM EDT Sep 01, 2014. Tweet · Next Video: Labor Day Webcast. post a comment. The North Country Lumber Jills held a skating clinic and informational meeting Sunday, hoping to recruit ...and more »
  • Timber, turpentine, farms and railroads led to communities' establishment (MAP ... - Crestview News Bulletin September 1, 2014
    Crestview News BulletinTimber, turpentine, farms and railroads led to communities' establishment (MAP ...Crestview News BulletinOkaloosa County's original courthouse was built in the early 1920s soon after Crestview was voted the county seat. (Baker Block Museum) Campbell Company, one of Laurel Hill's longtime businesses, offered general merch
  • Timber Rattlers clinch playoff spot - Appleton Post Crescent September 1, 2014
    Timber Rattlers clinch playoff spotAppleton Post CrescentBELOIT – The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers are headed to the Midwest League playoffs. The Timber Rattlers beat the Beloit Snappers 13-2 on Sunday at Pohlman Field and earned the Western Division second-half wild card when Peoria lost to Kane County.Brewers prospect Coulter launches two homers in
  • Timber smuggling on rise in Chure region - E Kantipur September 1, 2014
    Timber smuggling on rise in Chure regionE KantipurNAWALPARASI /PALPA , SEP 01 - The subsequent rise of timber smuggling in community forests located in the remote areas of Palpa and Nawalparasi has been blamed on the weakness of the District Forest Office and Community Forest consumer's ...
  • Football previews, 2014: Timber Creek - August 31, 2014
    Football previews, 2014: Timber CreekNJ.comTIMBER CREEK CHARGERS. Last season: 10-2, won West Jersey Football League-Constitution Division championship, South Jersey, Group 4 finalist, No. 4 in final Group 4 rankings, No. 6 in final South Jersey rankings. Conference and sectional ...and more »
  • Forest Service announces timber sale on North Kaibab Ranger District - Dixie Press Online August 31, 2014
    Dixie Press OnlineForest Service announces timber sale on North Kaibab Ranger DistrictDixie Press OnlineFREDONIA, Arizona — The Kaibab National Forest will soon award its second timber sale as part of the North Kaibab Ranger District Plateau Facilities Fire Protection Project. Following the required 30-day bid advertisement, the Plateaua Facilities Fire ...a
  • Father-Son Team Guide JAK's Flooring Through Recession To Emerge Stronger ... - Hartford Courant August 30, 2014
    Father-Son Team Guide JAK's Flooring Through Recession To Emerge Stronger ...Hartford CourantHis father, Allan, who was running both a hardware store in Hartford's North End and a flooring installation company, was suffering from the same market forces that led to his son's layoff. "The recession hit our hardware business really hard,
  • Chinese lumber exporter looks at buying Stanley plant - Asheville Citizen-Times August 28, 2014
    Chinese lumber exporter looks at buying Stanley plantAsheville Citizen-TimesROBBINSVILLE – After Stanley Furniture closed its last domestic manufacturing plant this summer, a Chinese lumber exporter is raising hopes for the property, potentially bringing new jobs to hard-hit Graham County. Tide & Times Group USA, based out of ...
  • Coalitions sue Forest Service to block Alaska old-growth timber sale - Los Angeles Times August 28, 2014
    Coalitions sue Forest Service to block Alaska old-growth timber saleLos Angeles TimesTwo coalitions of environmental groups have filed three separate suits against the U.S. Forest Service, hoping to stop what the organizations say is the largest sale of old-growth timber in nearly a generation in America's largest national forest. Last ...Young Growth T

Lumber | Hardwood Lumber